I'm not expert here but are you comparing like for like? For example you quoted Lilly Orforglipron recently (ACHIEVE-1) only producing a 7.9% reduction in weight where as Novo's (OASIS-1) produced a 17.4% reduction. However ACHIEVE-1 was for type-2 diabetes patients where as OASIS-1 was for weight loss patients. While there are similarities between the two groups, the underlying issue they are trying to cure is different. Also ACHIEVE-1's max dosage went to 36mg wehre as OASIS-1 was 50mg.
I believe that shouldn’t make that much difference. I am no expert in biology or pharma but from what I see at the big picture is that there are they both are oral treatments designed for weight loss purposes. And, at worst scenario, considering the points you raised about the differences, you have two equally performing drugs. The perception that Lilly has a clear upper hand just isn’t true.
As far as I have researched into the pipelines of both companies, Lilly drugs have more severe side affects than those of Novo’s so Lilly drugs have actually lower % of continuing treatment after 12 weeks
It’s not something just about Novo so I don’t think it makes sense to discuss it. It’s a whole lot of uncertainty for all. If tariffs will remain, Novo will get its fair share of underperformance, but so will everbody.
We did a deep-dive on U.S. tariffs for all profitable Nordic Pharmaceuticals.
Re. Novo Nordisk specifically, they do have U.S. presence via its North Carolina plant, but it is mostly fill-finish and thus APIs would need to be imported - but that will be the case for many players (incl. LLY to a certain extent).
Very well written. It does indeed look cheap but I fear the negative sentiment will continue for a while. Readout have been subpar and management communication has been divergent.. Worst case, FY guidance may come down.
More specific to Novo Nordisk, they do have U.S. presence via its North Carolina plant, but it is mostly fill-finish and thus APIs would need to be imported - but that will be the case for many players (incl. LLY to a certain extent).
Great article and very much agree to your points. I also believe Novo will grow EPS from now on and as far as the eye can see. Concretely, I model EPS 2x from now to 2029, and we are still early in Obesity and have not yet started in new indications for GLP-1´s.
For those interested, here is a view on the Obesity space:
This is a phenomenal investment thesis write-up. You just walked laps around the type of analysis people would find on SA
Thank you, glad you liked it!
Definitely a buy. Pity that euro markets are closed today. Added GTC order to buy at EUR 48 or below.
Great to know that you agree Julien!
I'm not expert here but are you comparing like for like? For example you quoted Lilly Orforglipron recently (ACHIEVE-1) only producing a 7.9% reduction in weight where as Novo's (OASIS-1) produced a 17.4% reduction. However ACHIEVE-1 was for type-2 diabetes patients where as OASIS-1 was for weight loss patients. While there are similarities between the two groups, the underlying issue they are trying to cure is different. Also ACHIEVE-1's max dosage went to 36mg wehre as OASIS-1 was 50mg.
I believe that shouldn’t make that much difference. I am no expert in biology or pharma but from what I see at the big picture is that there are they both are oral treatments designed for weight loss purposes. And, at worst scenario, considering the points you raised about the differences, you have two equally performing drugs. The perception that Lilly has a clear upper hand just isn’t true.
yeah thats fair, its tricky to parse if the results are really all that different as 90% of people who have type 2 diabetes are overweight.
Appreciate the writeup. thanks.
Top notch breakdown. Fantastic analysis. A must-read for any interested investor. Thanks. Restacked.
Thank so much Joel, glad you liked it!
Enjoyed this. I haven’t looked into it but are there are safety concerns with their pipe drugs that would compete with Lilly?
As far as I have researched into the pipelines of both companies, Lilly drugs have more severe side affects than those of Novo’s so Lilly drugs have actually lower % of continuing treatment after 12 weeks
Thanks. I’ve been meaning to have a look at NVO. Wasn’t really close to their pipeline. Will have a look.
Great analysis. I've owned for a few months. Glad you'll be buying.
Glad you liked it!
what about the situation in the US? Tariffs, I mean.
It’s not something just about Novo so I don’t think it makes sense to discuss it. It’s a whole lot of uncertainty for all. If tariffs will remain, Novo will get its fair share of underperformance, but so will everbody.
We did a deep-dive on U.S. tariffs for all profitable Nordic Pharmaceuticals.
Re. Novo Nordisk specifically, they do have U.S. presence via its North Carolina plant, but it is mostly fill-finish and thus APIs would need to be imported - but that will be the case for many players (incl. LLY to a certain extent).
https://nordicedge.substack.com/p/patents-pills-and-protectionism-the
Very well written. It does indeed look cheap but I fear the negative sentiment will continue for a while. Readout have been subpar and management communication has been divergent.. Worst case, FY guidance may come down.
I noticed no commentary on Tariffs. I made a deep-dive into Nordic-listed pharmaceuticals' position, incl. Novo Nordisk, in the unlikely event of broad-based U.S. tariffs, which you may find useful: https://nordicedge.substack.com/p/patents-pills-and-protectionism-the
More specific to Novo Nordisk, they do have U.S. presence via its North Carolina plant, but it is mostly fill-finish and thus APIs would need to be imported - but that will be the case for many players (incl. LLY to a certain extent).
Great article and very much agree to your points. I also believe Novo will grow EPS from now on and as far as the eye can see. Concretely, I model EPS 2x from now to 2029, and we are still early in Obesity and have not yet started in new indications for GLP-1´s.
For those interested, here is a view on the Obesity space:
https://ditlev.substack.com/p/the-obesity-drug-boom-a-very-large?r=na9z