Thx. Meta has a really strong and dominant ad business at its foundation. I think its not sufficiently appreciated by most on why its so much better than others. V. Good article as usual ! We have a similar cost basis 😄
Great article & very thorough 👏. I wish you touched upon Meta’s efforts at frontier model development (Muse Spark & future ones) but then it doesn’t change the meat of the article much so it’s ok. Anyway, can’t agree more that there is good margin of safety here to compensate for some of Meta’s missteps AND some of our own mistakes in analyzing the investment case. My own analysis (basic tbh not as comprehensive as yours) pointed to good MoS as well. That made me comfortable in going long at various price levels. I may add more on more weakness. This piece will force me to read more of your articles 😎. Thank you!. (@svarncapital on X).
Yeah I also think model business doesn’t affect the thesis much here. It would be more of a distraction if I included it. I think the most important thing here is margin of safety. Nobody can say Meta will execute everything perfectly, their past is full of mistakes. But, the current price gives a lot of room for missteps and external headwinds. That’s the important thing I believe.
I was a buyer of Meta when it dipped a few years back - my cost basis was <100$. At that time, it was no brainer investment. I can not say the same this time around. I would rather invest in wonderful companies at fair prices rather than in mediocre companies at low prices as WB would say. To me, META is a mediocre company today. Alternative investments elsewhere is more attractive today as well. Good write-up btw. thank you Oguz.
Thx. Meta has a really strong and dominant ad business at its foundation. I think its not sufficiently appreciated by most on why its so much better than others. V. Good article as usual ! We have a similar cost basis 😄
Glad to hear all these.
It's a unique combination, I think. One of the few big-tech businesses that only has upside from AI.
Great article & very thorough 👏. I wish you touched upon Meta’s efforts at frontier model development (Muse Spark & future ones) but then it doesn’t change the meat of the article much so it’s ok. Anyway, can’t agree more that there is good margin of safety here to compensate for some of Meta’s missteps AND some of our own mistakes in analyzing the investment case. My own analysis (basic tbh not as comprehensive as yours) pointed to good MoS as well. That made me comfortable in going long at various price levels. I may add more on more weakness. This piece will force me to read more of your articles 😎. Thank you!. (@svarncapital on X).
Yeah I also think model business doesn’t affect the thesis much here. It would be more of a distraction if I included it. I think the most important thing here is margin of safety. Nobody can say Meta will execute everything perfectly, their past is full of mistakes. But, the current price gives a lot of room for missteps and external headwinds. That’s the important thing I believe.
💯🎯
I was a buyer of Meta when it dipped a few years back - my cost basis was <100$. At that time, it was no brainer investment. I can not say the same this time around. I would rather invest in wonderful companies at fair prices rather than in mediocre companies at low prices as WB would say. To me, META is a mediocre company today. Alternative investments elsewhere is more attractive today as well. Good write-up btw. thank you Oguz.
Why do you think Meta is mediocre?