Great article on platform business! I think there's a couple of things worth flagging though.
The DoorDash margin expansion argument (AI cuts developer costs to 30-35% margins) runs directly against the macro thesis. If AI lowers fixed-cost barriers for DoorDash, it does the same for challengers, and the moat narrows via the same mechanism that's supposed to widen margins.
And also on the capex ceiling: Google raising $80B in equity, which is cited as evidence FCF is about to go negative, actually proves capex can grow beyond operating cash flow if capital markets stay open. There's no physical limit on equity raises here, and I think its highly likely that other hyperscalers will soon follow suit. The real constraint is their return discipline, which hasn't been tested yet.
What stayed with me wasn't the AI discussion itself, but the broader lesson about attention.
It seems that markets, much like people, become obsessed with a single story. As more capital flows toward that story, everything outside of it starts to look less attractive, regardless of its underlying quality. The result is that attention and value slowly drift apart.
What I found especially interesting is how difficult it is psychologically to choose the ignored opportunity over the popular one. Whether it's investing, careers, or even writing online, we're constantly surrounded by signals telling us where everyone else's attention is going.
The challenge isn't usually finding opportunities. It's having the patience and conviction to focus on them when everyone else is chasing something more exciting.
The line about "staying sane being a competitive advantage" feels applicable far beyond investing. Enjoyed this perspective.
Great article Oguz on a sector which I'm underinvested. Actually I checked the Uber stock price this morning and thought "great long time chart, great execution yet we're at 52 weeks low"
Great article on platform business! I think there's a couple of things worth flagging though.
The DoorDash margin expansion argument (AI cuts developer costs to 30-35% margins) runs directly against the macro thesis. If AI lowers fixed-cost barriers for DoorDash, it does the same for challengers, and the moat narrows via the same mechanism that's supposed to widen margins.
And also on the capex ceiling: Google raising $80B in equity, which is cited as evidence FCF is about to go negative, actually proves capex can grow beyond operating cash flow if capital markets stay open. There's no physical limit on equity raises here, and I think its highly likely that other hyperscalers will soon follow suit. The real constraint is their return discipline, which hasn't been tested yet.
What stayed with me wasn't the AI discussion itself, but the broader lesson about attention.
It seems that markets, much like people, become obsessed with a single story. As more capital flows toward that story, everything outside of it starts to look less attractive, regardless of its underlying quality. The result is that attention and value slowly drift apart.
What I found especially interesting is how difficult it is psychologically to choose the ignored opportunity over the popular one. Whether it's investing, careers, or even writing online, we're constantly surrounded by signals telling us where everyone else's attention is going.
The challenge isn't usually finding opportunities. It's having the patience and conviction to focus on them when everyone else is chasing something more exciting.
The line about "staying sane being a competitive advantage" feels applicable far beyond investing. Enjoyed this perspective.
Great article Oguz on a sector which I'm underinvested. Actually I checked the Uber stock price this morning and thought "great long time chart, great execution yet we're at 52 weeks low"