Great piece, Oguz. The Bloomberg Saddam headline example says everything — two opposite narratives within 30 minutes, both "supported" by the same event. That's the market in a nutshell.
We don't question information by default. Skepticism is a learned behavior, and even well-educated people revert to trusting narratives in domains outside their expertise. That's not a bug — it's how we're wired.
What you're really describing is a meta-edge: structuring your portfolio so that your edge doesn't depend on winning an information race you can't win. Most people never get there because the information flow feels productive. It's comfortable to feel "on top of things."
Most investors are optimizing the quality of their chess moves. Buffett changed the game — he only plays on boards where he already knows he won't lose.
This was truly value added. Crystalizes what I already know, but often forget.
If I was still working as a Financial Advisor, I’d probably tell every new client that as part of their on boarding, they are required to read this at least annually, then discuss it with me.
Terrific work, thank you.(why the F did I even buy MU LOL)
Great piece, Oguz. The Bloomberg Saddam headline example says everything — two opposite narratives within 30 minutes, both "supported" by the same event. That's the market in a nutshell.
We don't question information by default. Skepticism is a learned behavior, and even well-educated people revert to trusting narratives in domains outside their expertise. That's not a bug — it's how we're wired.
What you're really describing is a meta-edge: structuring your portfolio so that your edge doesn't depend on winning an information race you can't win. Most people never get there because the information flow feels productive. It's comfortable to feel "on top of things."
Most investors are optimizing the quality of their chess moves. Buffett changed the game — he only plays on boards where he already knows he won't lose.
Indeed, glad you liked the piece, thanks for the great comment!
It seems like time is a huge factor
The longer your time horizon, the harder it becomes to lose.
This was truly value added. Crystalizes what I already know, but often forget.
If I was still working as a Financial Advisor, I’d probably tell every new client that as part of their on boarding, they are required to read this at least annually, then discuss it with me.
Terrific work, thank you.(why the F did I even buy MU LOL)
Thank you, glad you liked it! Unless we keep these principles in mind, permanent underperformance is inevitable.
Amazing piece, as usual
Thank you so much, glad you liked it!