Capitalist Letters

Capitalist Letters

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🚨Trade Alert #1: Buying This Tariff-Proof European Business With 20% Margin of Safety
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🚨Trade Alert #1: Buying This Tariff-Proof European Business With 20% Margin of Safety

It is tariff proof, recently broke-out of the downtrend, and hurdle rate is very low for an outsized performance.

Oguz Erkan's avatar
Oguz Erkan
Apr 25, 2025
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Capitalist Letters
Capitalist Letters
🚨Trade Alert #1: Buying This Tariff-Proof European Business With 20% Margin of Safety
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The one investing quote I have been frequently mentioning lately comes from Howard Marks:

You can’t predict, but you can prepare.

-Howard Marks

Luckily, I started to say this long before the current correction.

I didn’t start saying this, forecasting tariffs or anything else, I said this because the US market was simply overvalued.

I urged in all my portfolio updates in Q4 2024 that:

  • The US market was overvalued but not in a bubble.

  • It would be prudent to diversify away from it.

I didn’t know, I was just being prepared.

As a result, I started to buy European stocks and later added a stock from the UK.

These stocks had one common characteristic: They were high-quality businesses, but they were beaten down so much that the hurdle rate ahead of them was so low despite an excellent track record of growth, capital allocation, and long runway.

Today, I am buying one more stock like this.

It grew revenues over 30% annually in the last 5 years, yet the current stock price implies 9% annual growth for the next decade.

I think this is a very low hurdle for it to step over, and I am confident it can do that.

I was waiting for it to break the downtrend to buy in, and it finally did.

I don’t know whether the US will remove tariffs or not, but in any case, I think it would be prudent to diversify across many countries and regions while you keep buying the highest-quality US businesses like Amazon as they get undervalued.

This will be my strategy for the rest of the year, and I think this stock will highly contribute to it.

Here is what I am buying:

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